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Markets

Biden's Odds of Dropping Out Jump to 55% on Polymarket as Obama Raises 'Concerns' About Presidential Campaign

Traders are now giving a 55% chance President Biden abandons his campaign and a 42% chance he does it before the Democratic convention

By Sam Reynolds
AccessTimeIconJul 3, 2024 at 5:37 a.m. UTC
Updated Jul 3, 2024 at 6:21 p.m. UTC
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  • Polymarket bettors give a 55% chance that Biden will drop out of the Presidential race.
  • Barack Obama has privately expressed concerns over Biden's campaign performance, according to the Washington Post

The chance that President Biden drops out of the race for the White House hit an all-time high of 55% on Polymarket after former president Barack Obama expressed concerns about the Biden campaign and debate performance.

(Polymarket)
(Polymarket)

The Washington Post reported late Tuesday that former president Barack Obama, concerned about Biden’s reelection chances after a poor debate performance, as well as highlighting his belief that Trump has strong electability, has been privately advising and supporting him while publicly expressing confidence in his campaign.

Bettors are less sure as to when Biden will withdraw.

Read more: Biden's Odds of Dropping Out Surge to Almost 80% on Polymarket After New York Times Report

The market is giving a 42% chance that Biden drops out before the Democratic convention, scheduled for August 19.

Democratic party bosses have already prepared a scenario for Biden pulling out of the election, according to reports from the New York Times, and the process of securing a new nominee will be a complex one.

The easiest route would be to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden's running mate.

Sensing that this would be the path of least resistance, the market pushed up Harris' odds of becoming the Democratic nominee to 31% on Tuesday, CoinDesk reported earlier.

Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors give a 13% chance to Harris winning the presidential election, and a 16% chance to Joe Biden.

More than $211 million has been bet on the general presidential election contract on Polymarket, while nearly $10 million has been bet on Biden dropping out.

Edited by Parikshit Mishra.

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CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.