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Biden Dropout Chances Rise to 68% After Covid Diagnosis

President Joe Biden said during an interview that if a medical condition emerged, he'd consider dropping out of the race.

By Sam Reynolds
AccessTimeIconJul 18, 2024 at 8:25 a.m. UTC
Updated Jul 19, 2024 at 6:27 a.m. UTC
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  • The chances of Biden pulling out of the U.S. presidential election are climbing, according to traders on Polymarket.
  • A recent Covid diagnosis and a statement from Biden that he'd withdraw if he came down with a medical condition appear to be moving the market.

The chances of President Joe Biden withdrawing from the race for U.S. president hit 68%, challenging an all-time high of 70%, after he said he had been diagnosed with Covid-19, according to bets placed on the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket.

(Polymarket)

In an interview with BET News that aired yesterday, Biden said that he would consider dropping out should he be diagnosed with a medical condition.

“Is there anything that you would look to you, personally and to say, ‘If I see that, I will reevaluate?’” BET's Ed Gordon asked Biden.

“If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, ‘You got this problem, that problem,’” Biden said.

The odds of Biden dropping out first surged following a debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump, jumping to 70% from 36% beforehand as his performance was widely criticized by stakeholders and the press.

Biden acknowledged the poor performance, blaming jet lag and an intense travel schedule.

After a PR campaign stressing his candidacy and denials from possible replacements, the "Yes" side of the drop-out contract slid 34 percentage points back to 36%.

And then the cycle repeated.

A public call-out from long-time Democratic supporter George Clooney for Biden to step down rocketed the "Yes" side of the contract up to 66% for a short while before it returned to the 30s. It rebounded again during the Republican National Convention and a market-favorite running mate pick from Trump's camp. The Covid diagnosis boosted it further.

Meanwhile, the chances that Biden will drop out before the Democratic convention confirms his nomination in August are also on their way back up, now at 59%.

Polymarket's national election tracker puts Trump at 64% to Biden's 12%. Kamala Harris, Biden's running mate, is at 19%.

Edited by Sheldon Reback.

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