Bitcoin Slumps Towards $63K as Speculation About Biden Dropout Intensifies

As the odds for Joe Biden pulling out of the presidential race soared over the past day, the chances of victory for the now crypto-friendly Donald Trump slipped on prediction market Polymarket.

AccessTimeIconJul 18, 2024 at 4:47 p.m. UTC
Updated Jul 18, 2024 at 9:15 p.m. UTC

Crypto markets were again in the red on Wednesday alongside a continued slump in U.S. equity prices and swirling speculation about the presidential election race.

BTC plunged to $63,500 from $65,000 in just two hours during mid-morning trading hours in the U.S., and was down 1.7% over the past 24 hours. The second-largest cryptocurrency ether (ETH) and Solana's native token (SOL) held up somewhat better, though each were also lower by more than 1%.

Smaller digital assets fell even more, sending the broad-market benchmark Coindesk 20 Index (CD20) lower by 2.8%. Leading the drop were 5%-6% declines for Ripple's XRP (XRP), Polkadot's DOT (DOT), Cardano's (ADA) and Polygon's token (MATIC).

CoinDesk 20 constituents (CoinDesk)
CoinDesk 20 constituents (CoinDesk)

The price action happened as U.S. equities found themselves unable to bounce from sizable declines earlier this week, with the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 down another 1% and the broad-based S&P 500 dropping 0.7%.

Uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election rose markedly in recent hours amid reports of mounting pressure from top party figures for President Biden not to seek re-election.

Traders on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket now see an 80% chance of Biden dropping out, up from 40% a day earlier. Meanwhile, odds for Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee for the presidential race jumped to 63% from 15% a day ago.

Alongside, GOP nominee Donald Trump's chances to win slightly tapered off on Polymarket to 65%, down from a 70% high after surviving an assassination attempt last weekend.

The rebound in crypto prices over the past week were in part fueled by investors seeing increasing chances for Trump winning the election and with that a far more crypto-friendly administration in the U.S..

Edited by Stephen Alpher.

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Krisztian  Sandor

Krisztian Sandor is a reporter on the U.S. markets team focusing on stablecoins and institutional investment. He holds BTC and ETH.